'Bayesian regression' Search Results
A High-Stakes Approach to Response Time Effort in Low-Stakes Assessment
accelerated failure time model piaac response time survival analysis...
Response times are one of the important sources that provide information about the performance of individuals during a test process. The main purpose of this study is to show that survival models can be used in educational data. Accordingly, data sets of items measuring literacy, numeracy and problem-solving skills of the countries participating in Round 3 of the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies were used. Accelerated failure time models have been analyzed for each country and domain. As a result of the analysis of the models in which various covariates are included as independent variables, and response time for giving correct answers is included as a dependent variable, it was found the associations between the covariates and response time for giving correct answers were concluded to vary from one domain to another or from one country to another. The results obtained from the present study have provided the educational stakeholders and practitioners with valuable information.
The Puzzle of Regression to the Mean
bayesian regression causal inferences pretest–posttest designs regression to the mean...
Although regression to the mean is pervasive in data analysis, educational researchers often misconstrue it as evidence of genuine change and mistakenly attribute random changes to treatment effects. A statistical phenomenon where extreme values naturally move closer to the average after repeated treatment, regression to the mean is especially susceptible to misinterpretations in educational studies with pretest-posttest or longitudinal designs. In such studies, observed changes are frequently assumed to be the effects of treatment, even in cases where the changes are statistical artifacts. Using a hypothetical case and two real-world studies, this paper investigates the technical challenges that regression to the mean poses and introduces a hybrid Bayesian model that mitigates its effects more effectively than conventional approaches, such as multiple baseline adjustments and formulaic corrections. In particular, the hybrid Bayesian model relies on multiple baseline measurements to minimize distortions associated with regression to the mean during the pretest phase and leverages prior knowledge—such as standard deviations and population means—to refine post-test data adjustments. It follows that the model provides educational researchers with an innovative tool for accurately evaluating interventions and enhancing the effectiveness of various research-driven educational policies and practices.
0