Teachers’ self-efficacy in classroom management is essential to their professional identity and teaching quality. While contextual factors shape these beliefs, the role of pre-service teachers’ perceptions of teacher education courses in influencing self-efficacy through their classroom management beliefs remains underexplored. This study expands self-efficacy theory by proposing an integrated model in which beliefs serve as both a mediator and a moderator between course perceptions and classroom management self-efficacy, particularly in inclusive classrooms. It builds on previous evidence that pre-service teachers’ beliefs about proactive strategies partially mediate the relationship between their course perceptions and capability beliefs in proactive management practices. This leads to the proposal of a moderated mediation model to explore a more nuanced relationship by investigating whether pre-service teachers’ punishment-oriented classroom management beliefs alter the strength and direction of this partial mediation effect. Data collected online from 480 pre-service teachers enrolled in State University and National Colleges of Education in Sri Lanka, which were used in the previous study, were analyzed using SmartPLS4 structural equation modeling. The findings indicate that punishment-based beliefs negatively moderated the indirect partial effect of pre-service teachers’ perceptions of classroom management training on their self-efficacy for inclusive classroom management, mediated by preventative beliefs. This positive indirect effect was significant only when reactive punishment-based beliefs were at low to moderate levels. These findings suggest that an overreliance on reactive strategies diminishes the beneficial influence of teacher education on self-efficacy in implementing preventive measures for inclusive classroom management. The results emphasize the importance of fostering proactive beliefs through targeted training within initial teacher education programs, supported by dedicated engagement from teacher educators and policymakers.